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November 5th, 2012

100,000 Voter Survey: Romney ahead but more believe that Obama will win

In a survey of 100,000 Avast users this past weekend, Avast users have shown just how close the upcoming Presidential Election is. The survey shows a narrow preference for Romney in the popular vote resulting in a large advantage for Romney in the Electoral College Vote. At the same time though, a clear majority believe that Obama will actually win:

  • 48.9% of users who are registered voters said they will definitely vote for Romney, compared to 46.1% who will vote for Obama. Interpreted by electoral votes, this is 290 votes for Romney and 230 for Obama.
  • As to who they think will actually win the election, however, 47.6% think Obama compared to 39.6% in Romney’s favor. Interpreted electorally, this gives 349 to Obama and only 189 to Romney.
  • New Mexico and Virginia are dead heats—46.9% for each candidate in New Mexico and 47.6% in Virginia.
  • The other tightly contested states in the survey are Florida with 49.2% for Romney and 47.5% for Obama; Ohio with 48.8% for Romney and 46.3% for Obama; and New Hampshire with 48.2% for Obama and 45.3% for Romney.

 

Of course, this has nothing to do with security, we don’t mix politics with business, and we have not taken any position on the election. Furthermore, we are based in the Czech Republic so any position we took would be meaningless anyways. But still, we have a large base of users in the USA—about 11 million—and we thought it could be insightful if their collective opinion could predict the election results as well as the professional polling firms.

Now, this is not a scientific sample and thus there could be many biases in the sample. But what I find most interesting is the clear difference between voting preference and opinion as to who will win. While it is evident that our users have a preference for Romney, a preference that is not reflected in most national polls, even more though believe that Obama will win. This ability to crowd source predictions has been the subject of much research and experimentation in the past few years. An article in National Defense Magazine (http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2011/december/pages/usgovernmentturnstocrowdsourcingforintelligence.aspx) is an excellent example.

There are also some interesting insights if one looks at the voters who are not sure if they are going to vote or not. More of these prefer Obama and including their votes narrows both the Electoral College and popular vote gaps. And as you see the map below, it is obvious that some of the opinions of our users are markedly different from other polls and past results. As an example, our Alaskan users prefer Obama over Romney even though a Democrat has not won in Alaska in many, many years.

Regardless of which way the election actually turns out, our Avast users will be correct. If Romney wins, the survey preference of our users is proven. If Obama wins, it shows the ability to accurately crowd source the correct result.

Now for some pretty pictures:

 

 

 

Who will you vote for?

Obama

Romney

Electors

Winner

Alabama

36,6%

58,5%

9

Romney
Alaska

52,8%

37,7%

3

Obama
Arizona

41,1%

53,5%

11

Romney
Arkansas

34,7%

60,2%

6

Romney
California

53,5%

41,4%

55

Obama
Colorado

45,1%

49,4%

9

Romney
Connecticut

55,0%

40,4%

7

Obama
Delaware

55,5%

41,7%

3

Obama
DC

79,4%

11,9%

3

Obama
Florida

47,5%

49,2%

29

Romney
Georgia

37,1%

58,7%

16

Romney
Hawaii

62,6%

32,8%

4

Obama
Idaho

32,4%

61,5%

4

Romney
Illinois

49,5%

45,5%

20

Obama
Indiana

45,8%

44,5%

11

Obama
Iowa

45,3%

48,4%

6

Romney
Kansas

37,4%

57,6%

6

Romney
Kentucky

36,8%

59,4%

8

Romney
Louisiana

30,1%

64,1%

8

Romney
Maine

54,4%

40,2%

4

Obama
Maryland

54,8%

39,8%

10

Obama
Massachusetts

56,1%

38,5%

11

Obama
Michigan

48,7%

46,7%

16

Obama
Minnesota

50,4%

42,9%

10

Obama
Mississippi

27,3%

68,2%

6

Romney
Missouri

40,7%

55,2%

10

Romney
Montana

42,9%

51,4%

3

Romney
Nebraska

37,0%

58,0%

5

Romney
Nevada

47,8%

49,4%

6

Romney
New Hampshire

48,2%

45,3%

4

Obama
New Jersey

56,4%

38,9%

14

Obama
New Mexico

46,9%

46,9%

5

Toss
New York

59,1%

35,2%

29

Obama
North Carolina

40,9%

55,0%

15

Romney
North Dakota

41,6%

54,8%

3

Romney
Ohio

46,3%

48,8%

18

Romney
Oklahoma

35,7%

61,4%

7

Romney
Oregon

53,1%

42,3%

7

Obama
Pennsylvania

43,9%

51,6%

20

Romney
Rhode Island

57,0%

35,7%

4

Obama
South Carolina

34,7%

60,7%

9

Romney
South Dakota

33,3%

60,3%

3

Romney
Tennessee

34,9%

60,7%

11

Romney
Texas

37,1%

58,0%

38

Romney
Utah

26,4%

68,2%

6

Romney
Vermont

68,4%

23,6%

3

Obama
Virginia

47,6%

47,6%

13

Toss
Washington

53,3%

41,5%

12

Obama
West Virginia

33,4%

62,9%

5

Romney
Wisconsin

46,8%

49,2%

10

Romney
Wyoming

35,4%

57,1%

3

Romney
Categories: CEO's corner, Uncategorized Tags:
  • sanderman33

    I hope for the both the financial well being and the safety of our country Obama is defeated tomorrow. He said he wants to fundamentally change our country and I believe him. The trouble is as the country and people we are we became the richest and most powerful nation this world has ever known. So what does he mean fundamentally change us. I see him trying to convert this country into a socialist country, which ultimately must lead to a communist country. Those systems have been tried and they have failed. Our system has flourished until recently when an all out assault has been perpetrated against it. We not only need to rid ourselves of a socialist president but of the socialist congressmen and the crooked congressmen and women starting with Bayner, Reed and Pelosi. If we don’t make these changes our country is doomed. If you don’t believe me just google the life cycle of a democracy…you’ll be amazed. Sanderman

  • thecormaster

    According to the previous post, one would assume that Obama actually intends for the economy to get worse so that he may have more people dependent upon his government. This is a common conspiracy theory. however, I believe that both candidates want what is best for this country. Congress on the other hand, is not. The republican Minority leader in the senate, said “our number one priority is to make Obama a one term president” this means, in essence, keeping him from having any legislative success on helping America and therefore being popular.And most of his bills should not have been fairly controversial. His health care plan was modeled after Mitt Romney’s in Massachusetts, which was said to be “the ultimate republican Ideal” at the time. his Dodd Frank reforms were to undo the deregulation of banks that lead them to be able to make bad loans leading to the crisis today. And the Dream act was originally introduced by Bush, but was was preemptively killed by the republicans in congress when Obama tried to reintroduce it. What is not happening is Obama moving towards communism. Obama has moved towards the center, while republicans have moved towards the tea party fringe. This is why they should lose the election.

  • chaney220

    I argue that there is substantial evidence that Obama wants people to be dependent on his government. He signed an executive order where he now has the power to declare marshall law at any time. The executive order gives him the power to seize control over the nation’s economy and act as he sees fit with no oversight. The only thing he is required to do is brief the Congress on his decisions. The order further allows him to seize control over the private sector and implement a draft to carry out his will. Maybe this is why he has been growing the private sector lately.

  • JDE

    @sanderman33

    Apparently, even Avast users succumb to to getting all of their information from Fox News.

    “If you don’t believe me just google the life cycle of a democracy…you’ll be amazed.”

    I’m amazed you can use a computer.

  • bingo

    David Stockman on Romney

    “Mitt Romney was not a businessman; he bought, sold, flipped, and stripped businesses.
    He did not build enterprises the old fashioned way—our of inspiration, perspiration, and a long slog in the free market fostering a new product, service, or process of production. Instead, he spend his 15 years raising debt in prodigious amounts on Wall Street so that Bain could purchase pots and pans and castoffs of corporate America, leverage them to the hilt, gussy them up as reborn “roll-ups,” then deliver them back to Wall Street for resale—the faster the better.”

    David Stockman—Former Director of the Office Of Management and Budget for Reagan 1981-1985

  • bingo

    Mitt Romney looked sweetly into the TV camera and said that he worships the same God as the rest of the country… just look at the belief system of the Mormons here and see if you agree http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VEGMMd5JfY

    I have become more aware of my JudeoChristian upbringing and I value more a real prophet Christ not that Mormon phony Joseph Smith and I am voting for the real Christian Barack Obama and don’t tell me he is a Muslim just due to his name or knowing his dad for a couple of days of his life- Barack is the real person all around.

  • whitewolf60

    Richest nation in the world? Hardly. Try “most indebted nation ever”.

    Most powerful nation? That will be the next notion to fall.

    All of this was set in motion long before Obama came on the scene. The “capitalists” have sold us to the communists for pocketfulls of yuan and shekels. They say this is in the interest of “free trade”, but why then is it illegal for me to travel to Cuba or to even buy a Cuban cigar? Lies.

    It’s all lies, designed to divide and conquer and destroy, and as usual the American electorate is almost perfectly evenly divided (just by coincidence, of course).

    We’ve spent the last 35 years transforming communist China from a no-count backwater into what is arguably the world’s leading superpower (all considered) with our money, jobs, factories, and technology. In exchange, we have landfills full of cheap, plastic, toxic CRAP. And now, NOW we are going to try to contain China? This is insanity. Democrat AND Republican administrations and congresses have been at the helm throughout this process.

    And if you believe the current state of affairs is the result of some inevitable progression, I suggest that you go vote for one or the other of these turkeys tomorrow. @sanderman33

  • JD76

    @bingo
    I’ve known several Mormons in the past and have found them to generally be decent, honest, hard-working people. I am much more inclined to base my opinion of their religion on their example than on a YouTube video.
    Regardless, this election is not – and should not be – about religion. It’s about who is best suited to be president for the next four years. If you believe the government should cut spending and move towards a balanced budget, vote Republican. If you believe the government should continue to incur debt in an attempt to jump-start the economy, vote Democrat.

  • Elsydeon

    Here is how I plan on deciding.

    Is Obama good for our economy?
    No

    His promotion and requirement for corn-based ethanol in fuels not only has increased food and fuel prices, especially during low harvest years such as this one, this is made worse by retaining the 54 cent per gallon tariff on Brazilian ethanol. The continual blockage of permits for new drilling sites and the Keystone XL pipeline has also inflamed fuel prices.

    The decrease in payroll deductions did nothing to help consumer spending, while cutting revenue for the government.

    The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (the “stimulus”) was a very large expense for very little gain. Some basic division shows that the predicted $831 billion divided by the 2.5 million jobs predicted to be saved or created shows that each job cost over $330,000 to create, but not one of the people whom receive employment under the act would gain such in wages.

    The federal “Cash for Clunkers” program was supposed to help people and the automotive industry by helping people purchase new cars by destroying fuel inefficient vehicles for incentives. The actual effect on the auto industry was that auto sales spiked, then stalled as everyone got their new car and demand for new vehicles is now much less due not only to people getting their new car, but also due to a surge in near new vehicles being resold from people who could not afford the auto loans. The effects on the people were worse, as many cars were bought with loans and therefore required full-coverage insurance, adding significant financial burdens and artificially inflating secondary market prices due to the lessened supply of cheap cars for low-income people to purchase, significantly affecting their ability to gain employment.

    Do I trust Obama to promote good foreign policy and national security.
    No

    Michelle Obama hugging the Queen (touching the Monarch is highly offensive to the British) caused even soccer hooligans to unite in their hate for us.

    During, the Libyan civil war, UN Security Council resolution 1973 was passed, with the stated intent of protecting civilians from Libyan government aircraft. Brazil and India both abstained due to concerns over the lack of limits in paragraph 4 which allows the use of force to protect civilians, but was worded in a way to allow for the complete destruction of the Libyan military. President Obama had reassured them that there was no plan for regime change. Of the American forces deployed, only the F-16 Fighting Falcon multirole fighters and EA-18 Growler electronic warfare aircraft were designed to be used or even capable of an air superiority role, all other forces deployed were designed to be used exclusively or primarily in a ground attack role (subsonic aircraft such as the A-10, AV-8B and AC-130, bombers such as the famous B-2 stealth bomber and the F-15E, 6 vessels designed for use with the Tomahawk cruise missile and 2 explicitly and only for amphibious assault).

    The Sept. 11 attack on our embassy in Libya is a big concern as well due to the unanswered calls for reinforcements (Obama or his staff does not matter, he either did it himself or picks bad people to work for him) and lack of increased security after persons were discovered to be surveying the compound is extremely distressing due to the recent civil war and the upcoming 9/11 anniversary.

    Do I trust Obama on domestic policy.
    No

    Our involvement with the Libyan civil war was in violation of the War Powers Resolution of 1973 (50 U.S.C. 1541-1548) which codifies Congress’ power to declare war, and was created in response to the abuses of the Commander in Chief power that resulted in prolonged conflicts in Korea (which was 3 years) and Vietnam (which lasted 19 and a half years). Congress had informed President Obama of the law, and stated that if he sought authorization, they would provide it, Obama replied that because NATO, not the US was commanding the forces, that authorization was not needed and refused to seek such.

    Obama has been performing recess appointments, a power the President does have while the Senate is in recess, while the Senate has been performing pro forma sessions specifically to not be in recess as per the Senate’s rules. The Constitution states that the House and Senate make their own rules of procedure and that the President can only appoint people with the “Advice and Consent” of the Senate, unless Senate is in recess.

    Do I trust Obama to promote civil rights.
    No

    The removal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” actually harmed gays in the military, since the Senate’s amendment to alter the language of Article 125 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, which bans sodomy, and now exposes gays to harassment and unfair treatment. The act was declared to not affect readiness by Obama himself and two of his most powerful appointees.

  • Elsydeon

    my bad, need better proofreading, should add “was not included” after “bans sodomy” in the last paragraph

  • JDE

    The “Who will you vote for?” figures are depressing.

    If this is representative of the caliber of people using Avast, I may give AVG a try.

  • supahdan

    Obama will win the Election,Users this is not Fox news. Get real for once…and please don’t cry tonite

  • 5thGen

    Likley the reason more people are actually voting for Romney/Ryan is because they understand what 20 Trillion debt will do to America by 2016.

    Likley the reason more people think Obama might win is because of the voter fraud we’ve already been seeing, where in multiple swing states a vote for Romney gets counted as Obama- EVERY TIME. Never the other way around.

    If Obama does win, the takers just out numbered the makers, and that spells a very dark future for this country, look at Greece for a preview.

  • 5thGen

    @Elsydeon

    Do yourself a favor, go see Obama’s America 2016, the movie.

    And stop feeding from the MSNBC trough.